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MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

DELTA DEVILSMVSU

1-1  |  Road

60
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 8:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

1-0  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
DELTA DEVILS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Murray State)
Delta DevilsMVSU (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delta Devils Cover

27.4%

Racers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MVSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

MVSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

MUR By 1-7 points

26.8%

MUR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
73
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
58
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
80
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 MVSU @ MUR 60 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +10.9% more
Murray State: 3.4 vs Mississippi Valley State: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Murray State: 79.5% vs Mississippi Valley State: 74.3%
Turnovers (L5) +32.5% more
Mississippi Valley State: 17.1 vs Murray State: 11.5
Steals (L5) +21.8% more
Mississippi Valley State: 8.4 vs Murray State: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score 67.0 60
MUR Score 73.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 36.2 35.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.7 / 14.5 27.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 38.7 / 41.7 48.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 74.3 68.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 33.5 46.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.6 / 8.4 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 17.1 5.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.0
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
MVSU
MUR
MVSU
ML
58% 19-14
91% 30-3
61% 20-13
75% 18-6
ATS
52% 17-16
82% 27-6
61% 20-13
75% 18-6
TTL
70% 23-10
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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