Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mastodons @ Buckeyes PFW @ OSU

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

0-1  |  Road

68
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 6:30 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

1-0  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
📊
BUCKEYES
0%
MASTODONS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Ohio State)
MastodonsPFW (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mastodons Cover

27.4%

Buckeyes Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

PFW By 1-7 points

16.9%

PFW By 8-14 points

6.8%

OSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

OSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
85
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
60
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
78
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 PFW @ OSU 68 - 94
Nov 22, 2019 PFW @ OSU 46 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +27.0% more
Ohio State: 14.9 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Ohio State: 33.9 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 29.6
Blocks (L5) +11.2% more
Ohio State: 2.0 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 1.8
Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
Ohio State: 49.9% vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 42.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PFW Score 79.0 68
OSU Score 85.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 30.9 57.0 / 24.0
Assists 14.9 / 11.7 22.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 42.1 67.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 76.1 77.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 29.6 33.0 / 17.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.2 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 12.8 19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
PFW
OSU
PFW
ML
53% 18-16
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
74% 23-8
ATS
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
74% 23-8
TTL
56% 19-15
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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