Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Bearcats GAST @ CIN

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

0-1  |  Road

64
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Arena
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

1-0  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
BEARCATS
0%
PANTHERS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Cincinnati)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 BearcatsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

30.9%

Bearcats Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

GAST By 1-7 points

18.6%

GAST By 8-14 points

8.0%

CIN By 1-7 points

27.2%

CIN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
83
GEORGIA STATE
88
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
68
GEORGIA STATE
75
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 GAST @ CIN 64 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +87.3% more
Cincinnati: 10.5 vs Georgia State: 5.6
Assists (L5) +73.1% more
Cincinnati: 16.7 vs Georgia State: 9.7
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Cincinnati: 46.8% vs Georgia State: 41.7%
Blocks (L5) +11.0% more
Georgia State: 4.2 vs Cincinnati: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 83.0 64
CIN Score 88.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 35.4 23.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.7 / 9.7 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 41.7 40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 65.9 / 67.9 65.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 37.8 40.0 / 35.0
Steals 10.5 / 5.6 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 12.8 16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
CIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
GAST
CIN
GAST
ML
67% 22-11
56% 18-14
74% 23-8
71% 22-9
ATS
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
74% 23-8
71% 22-9
TTL
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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