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KANSAS

JAYHAWKSKU

1-0  |  Road

74
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

1-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
JAYHAWKS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
JAYHAWKS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Carolina)
JayhawksKU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jayhawks Cover

30.9%

Tar Heels Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

KU By 1-7 points

18.6%

KU By 8-14 points

8.0%

UNC By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
KANSAS
80
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
74
KANSAS
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 KU @ UNC 74 - 87
Nov 8, 2024 UNC @ KU 89 - 92
Apr 4, 2022 UNC @ KU 69 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +62.7% more
North Carolina: 9.0 vs Kansas: 5.5
Blocks (L5) +41.0% more
Kansas: 5.2 vs North Carolina: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Kansas: 40.7% vs North Carolina: 34.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Kansas: 48.6% vs North Carolina: 46.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 75.0 74
UNC Score 80.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 40.7 30.0 / 48.0
Assists 18.1 / 18.5 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 48.6 52.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 76.0 65.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 40.0 39.0 / 27.0
Steals 9.0 / 5.5 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 10.3 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
UNC
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -4.1
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
KU
UNC
KU
ML
76% 25-8
57% 20-15
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
ATS
73% 24-9
49% 17-18
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
TTL
55% 18-15
60% 21-14
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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