Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Wildcats VAL @ UK

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

1-0  |  Road

59
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Rupp Arena
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

1-0  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
BEACONS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Kentucky)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

1.1%

Wildcats Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

VAL By 1-7 points

0.8%

VAL By 8-14 points

0.1%

UK By 1-7 points

4.8%

UK By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
59
VALPARAISO
82
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
61
VALPARAISO
88
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+32.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 VAL @ UK 59 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +49.0% more
Kentucky: 17.0 vs Valparaiso: 11.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.1% more
Kentucky: 11.3 vs Valparaiso: 9.9
Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Kentucky: 47.2% vs Valparaiso: 38.3%
Rebounding (L5) +8.2% more
Kentucky: 38.5 vs Valparaiso: 35.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 59.0 59
UK Score 82.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 32.8 39.0 / 24.0
Assists 17.0 / 11.4 27.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.6 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 38.3 54.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 63.4 / 73.8 85.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 35.6 50.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.9 / 8.1 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 9.9 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
UK Advantage
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
UK
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
VAL
UK
VAL
ML
71% 25-10
48% 16-17
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
ATS
83% 29-6
52% 17-16
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
TTL
63% 22-13
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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