Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Grizzlies @ Boilermakers OAK @ PUR

OAKLAND

GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK

0-1  |  Road

77
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Mackey Arena
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

1-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Purdue)
Golden GrizzliesOAK (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Grizzlies Cover

27.4%

Boilermakers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

OAK By 1-7 points

16.9%

OAK By 8-14 points

6.8%

PUR By 1-7 points

26.8%

PUR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
OAKLAND
77
PURDUE
Simulated Score
62
OAKLAND
88
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+31.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 OAK @ PUR 77 - 87
Dec 1, 2020 OAK @ PUR 50 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +20.9% more
Purdue: 36.7 vs Oakland: 30.4
Assists (L5) +14.8% more
Purdue: 17.9 vs Oakland: 15.6
Steals (L5) +28.8% more
Oakland: 6.1 vs Purdue: 4.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Oakland: 11.7 vs Purdue: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OAK Score 71.0 77
PUR Score 77.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 38.7 37.0 / 31.0
Assists 17.9 / 15.6 22.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.2 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 46.2 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 80.4 67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 30.4 37.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.3 / 6.1 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 11.7 5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OAK
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OAK Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.0
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
OAK
PUR
OAK
ML
67% 26-13
62% 20-12
66% 25-13
59% 19-13
ATS
64% 25-14
50% 16-16
66% 25-13
59% 19-13
TTL
51% 20-19
62% 20-12
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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