VCU
RAMSVCU
1-0 | Road
77
UTAH STATE
AGGIESUSU
1-0 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
AGGIES
0%
RAMS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Utah State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)
VCU By 1-7 points
23.0%
VCU By 8-14 points
12.2%
USU By 1-7 points
26.8%
USU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
VCU
66
VCU
Utah State
68
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
VCU
69
VCU
Utah State
73
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 7, 2025
VCU @ USU
77 - 80
Nov 25, 2020
VCU @ USU
85 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+14.0% more
Utah State: 8.9
vs
VCU: 7.8
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
Utah State: 18.6
vs
VCU: 16.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Utah State: 46.7%
vs
VCU: 44.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Utah State: 73.7%
vs
VCU: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VCU Score
66.0
77
USU Score
68.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 35.5
46.0 / 37.0
Assists
18.6 / 16.9
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.2 / 6.2
5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 44.5
48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 71.8
69.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
38.8 / 38.5
37.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.9 / 7.8
14.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.9
18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VCU
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
USU
Advantage
29-7-0
(80.6%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VCU
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
USU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
VCU
USU
VCU
ML
49%
17-18
72%
26-10
66%
21-11
67%
22-11
ATS
74%
26-9
81%
29-7
67%
22-11
67%
22-11
TTL
51%
18-17
58%
21-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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