YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
0-1 | Road
90
GRAND CANYON
LOPESGCU
1-0 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
LOPES
0%
PENGUINS
--
LOPES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Grand Canyon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)
YSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
YSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
GCU By 1-7 points
20.1%
GCU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
75
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Grand Canyon
87
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
70
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Grand Canyon
76
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lopes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lopes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lopes (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Lopes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 7, 2025
YSU @ GCU
90 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.0% more
Grand Canyon: 13.7
vs
Youngstown State: 11.6
Turnovers (L5)
+13.2% more
Grand Canyon: 12.8
vs
Youngstown State: 11.3
Rebounding (L5)
+11.2% more
Grand Canyon: 35.6
vs
Youngstown State: 32.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
Grand Canyon: 73.2%
vs
Youngstown State: 66.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
75.0
90
GCU Score
87.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 32.8
15.0 / 44.0
Assists
13.7 / 11.6
13.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.4
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 40.8
48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 66.2
68.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 32.0
39.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.0
1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 11.3
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
GCU
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
GCU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
YSU
GCU
YSU
ML
66%
21-11
57%
17-13
68%
21-10
67%
20-10
ATS
72%
23-9
47%
14-16
68%
21-10
67%
20-10
TTL
44%
14-18
60%
18-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
