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IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

1-0  |  Road

71
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Jenny Craig Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

1-0  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
📊
TOREROS
100%
BENGALS --
TOREROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Idaho State)
BengalsIDST (-3.5) 0 TorerosUSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

99.5%

Toreros Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDST -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)

IDST By 1-7 points

2.7%

IDST By 8-14 points

9.3%

USD By 1-7 points

0.4%

USD By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
IDAHO STATE
66
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
68
IDAHO STATE
75
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bengals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Toreros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bengals (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Toreros (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 IDST @ USD 71 - 68
Nov 16, 2024 IDST @ USD 78 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.3%
Idaho State: 71.4% vs San Diego: 69.1%
Turnovers (L5) +79.0% more
San Diego: 14.7 vs Idaho State: 8.2
Steals (L5) +62.8% more
San Diego: 9.5 vs Idaho State: 5.8
Assists (L5) +41.6% more
San Diego: 16.6 vs Idaho State: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 92.0 71
USD Score 66.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.4 / 25.1 42.0 / 38.0
Assists 16.6 / 11.7 14.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.3 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 42.1 42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 71.4 71.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 38.3 31.0 / 36.0
Steals 9.5 / 5.8 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 8.2 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST Advantage
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
USD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
IDST
USD
IDST
ML
58% 19-14
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
72% 23-9
ATS
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
70% 23-10
72% 23-9
TTL
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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