Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mocs @ Gaels UTC @ SMC

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

1-0  |  Road

66
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 10:30 PM ET
University Credit Union Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

1-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
100%
📊
GAELS
0%
MOCS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Saint Mary's)
MocsUTC (-3.5) 0 GaelsSMC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mocs Cover

1.8%

Gaels Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)

UTC By 1-7 points

1.4%

UTC By 8-14 points

0.2%

SMC By 1-7 points

6.8%

SMC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
66
CHATTANOOGA
87
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
65
CHATTANOOGA
76
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gaels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gaels (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 UTC @ SMC 66 - 87
Nov 7, 2024 UTC @ SMC 74 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.5% more
Saint Mary's: 3.8 vs Chattanooga: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +28.2% more
Saint Mary's: 9.7 vs Chattanooga: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Saint Mary's: 73.0% vs Chattanooga: 67.5%
Steals (L5) +40.9% more
Chattanooga: 8.4 vs Saint Mary's: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTC Score 66.0 66
SMC Score 87.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 37.3 50.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.5 / 20.9 21.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.9 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 44.9 58.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 67.5 93.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 40.8 31.0 / 21.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 7.6 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
UTC
SMC
UTC
ML
56% 18-14
48% 15-16
82% 23-5
53% 16-14
ATS
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
83% 24-5
55% 17-14
TTL
53% 17-15
77% 24-7
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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