TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
4-4 | Road
109
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
4-4 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
HAWKS
0%
RAPTORS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TOR By 1-7 points
18.6%
TOR By 8-14 points
8.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
110
TORONTO
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
111
TORONTO
Atlanta
117
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ATL @ TOR
100 - 118
Jan 3, 2026
ATL @ TOR
117 - 134
Nov 7, 2025
TOR @ ATL
109 - 97
Oct 22, 2025
TOR @ ATL
138 - 118
Jan 25, 2025
TOR @ ATL
117 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+59.0% more
Atlanta: 13.2
vs
Toronto: 8.3
Steals (L5)
+36.8% more
Atlanta: 6.4
vs
Toronto: 4.7
Assists (L5)
+21.6% more
Toronto: 20.7
vs
Atlanta: 16.2
Rebounding (L5)
+20.1% more
Toronto: 31.7
vs
Atlanta: 25.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
110.0
109
ATL Score
115.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 33.2
24.0 / 32.0
Assists
16.2 / 20.7
24.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.9
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 51.7
34.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
49.7 / 50.8
96.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
25.3 / 31.7
54.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.4 / 4.7
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 8.3
19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TOR
ATL
TOR
ML
50%
52-52
55%
57-47
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
ATS
53%
55-48-1
61%
62-40-2
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
TTL
53%
55-48-1
60%
62-42
100%
88-0
100%
87-0
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