Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Grizzlies DAL @ MEM

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

2-6  |  Road

104
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

3-6  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
MAVERICKS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Memphis)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Grizzlies Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

DAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

MEM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
115
DALLAS
116
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
113
DALLAS
107
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Memphis: 63.6% vs Dallas: 58.8%
Steals (L5) +15.3% more
Dallas: 7.6 vs Memphis: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 115.0 104
MEM Score 116.0 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 33.1 37.0 / 26.0
Assists 18.9 / 18.3 27.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.6 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 42.0 48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 63.6 / 58.8 82.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 33.9 42.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.6 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 12.0 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DAL
MEM
DAL
ML
57% 59-44
62% 63-39
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
ATS
63% 65-38
67% 68-34
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
TTL
70% 71-31-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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