CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
3-5 | Road
108
MIAMI
HEATMIA
4-4 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
HEAT
0%
HORNETS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHA By 1-7 points
24.3%
CHA By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Miami
119
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o235.0
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+79.7% more
Miami: 9.0
vs
Charlotte: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+21.5% more
Miami: 22.7
vs
Charlotte: 18.7
Blocks (L5)
+32.0% more
Charlotte: 4.2
vs
Miami: 2.8
Rebounding (L5)
+12.5% more
Charlotte: 36.2
vs
Miami: 31.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
118.0
108
MIA Score
119.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 38.6
43.0 / 26.0
Assists
22.7 / 18.7
31.0 / 22.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.2
7.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 48.3
52.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
63.0 / 64.6
86.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
31.7 / 36.2
37.0 / 57.0
Steals
9.0 / 5.0
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 13.1
8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHA
MIA
CHA
ML
48%
46-50
61%
60-39
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
ATS
51%
49-47
60%
59-40
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
57-39
58%
57-42
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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