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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

8-1  |  Road

132
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

3-5  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
THUNDER --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Sacramento)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

30.9%

Kings Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

OKC By 1-7 points

18.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

8.0%

SAC By 1-7 points

27.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
120
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
119
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u234.5 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 SAC @ OKC 99 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 OKC @ SAC 132 - 101
Oct 28, 2025 SAC @ OKC 101 - 107
Mar 25, 2025 OKC @ SAC 121 - 105
Feb 1, 2025 SAC @ OKC 110 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.2% more
Sacramento: 11.4 vs Oklahoma City: 10.2
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Sacramento: 50.2% vs Oklahoma City: 47.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Sacramento: 39.7% vs Oklahoma City: 37.7%
Blocks (L5) +37.4% more
Oklahoma City: 4.0 vs Sacramento: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 115.0 132
SAC Score 120.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 37.7 38.0 / 37.0
Assists 21.5 / 20.5 27.0 / 27.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.0 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 47.1 41.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 66.1 67.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 34.5 38.0 / 52.0
Steals 5.4 / 8.1 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 10.2 17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
OKC
SAC
OKC
ML
55% 55-45
70% 80-34
61% 50-32
48% 46-49
ATS
54% 52-45-3
73% 83-30-1
61% 50-32
48% 46-49
TTL
58% 57-42-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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