Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redbirds @ Bobcats ILST @ OHIO

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

0-0  |  Road

68
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Convocation Center (OH)
View Odds Details →

OHIO

BOBCATSOHIO

0-1  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
📊
BOBCATS
100%
REDBIRDS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Illinois State)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 BobcatsOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

78.8%

Bobcats Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

ILST By 1-7 points

25.3%

ILST By 8-14 points

26.2%

OHIO By 1-7 points

13.7%

OHIO By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
ILLINOIS STATE
68
OHIO
Simulated Score
70
ILLINOIS STATE
75
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Redbirds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Redbirds (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 ILST @ OHIO 68 - 72
Nov 12, 2024 OHIO @ ILST 75 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.7% more
Illinois State: 3.0 vs Ohio: 1.6
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Illinois State: 13.8 vs Ohio: 11.1
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Illinois State: 33.0 vs Ohio: 29.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Illinois State: 37.6% vs Ohio: 33.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 76.0 68
OHIO Score 68.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 37.6 13.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.1 / 13.8 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 49.7 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 74.1 56.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 29.7 / 33.0 35.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.2 / 4.7 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.6 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
OHIO
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
OHIO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
ILST
OHIO
ILST
ML
65% 20-11
42% 15-21
63% 19-11
71% 24-10
ATS
68% 21-10
58% 21-15
63% 19-11
71% 24-10
TTL
61% 19-12
58% 21-15
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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