SAINT FRANCIS
RED FLASHSFPA
0-1 | Road
63
TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
0-1 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
HORNED FROGS
0%
RED FLASH
--
HORNED FROGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TCU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
SFPA By 1-7 points
18.6%
SFPA By 8-14 points
8.0%
TCU By 1-7 points
27.2%
TCU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Francis
62
SAINT FRANCIS
TCU
67
TCU
Simulated Score
Saint Francis
61
SAINT FRANCIS
TCU
88
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Horned Frogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Horned Frogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Horned Frogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Horned Frogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 6, 2025
SFPA @ TCU
63 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+69.2% more
TCU: 4.2
vs
Saint Francis: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+53.1% more
TCU: 9.8
vs
Saint Francis: 6.4
Turnovers (L5)
+14.1% more
Saint Francis: 13.2
vs
TCU: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
Saint Francis: 32.7%
vs
TCU: 22.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score
62.0
63
TCU Score
67.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
22.2 / 32.7
36.0 / 38.0
Assists
10.9 / 11.5
21.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.5
8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
38.1 / 43.6
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 67.7
86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 33.5
48.0 / 22.0
Steals
9.8 / 6.4
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 13.2
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0
(22.6%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
TCU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +5.8
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
SFPA
TCU
SFPA
ML
74%
26-9
68%
21-10
63%
19-11
67%
20-10
ATS
74%
26-9
68%
21-10
63%
19-11
67%
20-10
TTL
66%
23-12
58%
18-13
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
