NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
0-1 | Road
53
NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
1-0 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
MEAN GREEN
0%
DEMONS
--
MEAN GREEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (North Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)
NWST By 1-7 points
24.3%
NWST By 8-14 points
13.7%
UNT By 1-7 points
26.2%
UNT By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
62
NORTHWESTERN STATE
North Texas
63
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
58
NORTHWESTERN STATE
North Texas
75
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mean Green
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Mean Green (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 6, 2025
NWST @ UNT
53 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.6% more
North Texas: 10.6
vs
Northwestern State: 7.9
Blocks (L5)
+12.0% more
North Texas: 3.9
vs
Northwestern State: 3.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
North Texas: 44.9%
vs
Northwestern State: 42.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+21.5% more
Northwestern State: 13.7
vs
North Texas: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
62.0
53
UNT Score
63.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 40.8
48.0 / 31.0
Assists
13.3 / 12.7
15.0 / 7.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.5
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 42.2
56.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
69.8 / 75.7
64.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 31.6
32.0 / 24.0
Steals
10.6 / 7.9
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 13.7
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
UNT
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
UNT
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
NWST
UNT
NWST
ML
70%
23-10
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
77%
23-7
ATS
52%
17-16
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
77%
23-7
TTL
67%
22-11
39%
12-19
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Drake Men's Basketball Enters Year 2 Under Eric Henderson with R…
.jpg)
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…