Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Jaguars ALCN @ USA

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

0-1  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

1-0  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
BRAVES --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (South Alabama)
BravesALCN (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

11.5%

Jaguars Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

ALCN By 1-7 points

8.0%

ALCN By 8-14 points

2.2%

USA By 1-7 points

20.1%

USA By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
67
ALCORN STATE
79
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
68
ALCORN STATE
75
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 ALCN @ USA 70 - 76
Nov 29, 2024 ALCN @ USA 65 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.5% more
South Alabama: 8.5 vs Alcorn State: 5.9
Assists (L5) +16.2% more
South Alabama: 12.4 vs Alcorn State: 10.7
Blocks (L5) +42.0% more
Alcorn State: 2.9 vs South Alabama: 1.7
Turnovers (L5) +33.8% more
Alcorn State: 14.5 vs South Alabama: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score 67.0 70
USA Score 79.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 33.1 33.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.4 / 10.7 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.9 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 46.7 53.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 62.7 / 66.7 59.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 34.2 31.0 / 27.0
Steals 8.5 / 5.9 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 14.5 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
USA
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
ALCN
USA
ALCN
ML
47% 15-17
66% 21-11
57% 17-13
75% 18-6
ATS
53% 17-15
68% 21-10-1
57% 17-13
75% 18-6
TTL
66% 21-11
47% 15-17
100% 30-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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