Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Pilots UAPB @ PORT

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

0-1  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 10:30 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

1-0  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
0%
📊
PILOTS
100%
GOLDEN LIONS --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

38.2%

Pilots Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PORT +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

UAPB By 1-7 points

27.2%

UAPB By 8-14 points

20.1%

PORT By 1-7 points

21.6%

PORT By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
69
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
66
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
65
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
82
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pilots (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 UAPB @ PORT 74 - 83
Nov 18, 2021 UAPB @ PORT 74 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.0% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 7.7 vs Portland: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 14.1 vs Portland: 11.6
Assists (L5) +51.3% more
Portland: 19.1 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 12.6
Blocks (L5) +40.9% more
Portland: 3.3 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 69.0 74
PORT Score 66.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 33.4 22.0 / 32.0
Assists 19.1 / 12.6 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.4 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.6 / 39.9 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 60.5 78.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 39.8 / 32.2 37.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.4 / 7.7 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 14.1 19.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
PORT Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
PORT Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
UAPB
PORT
UAPB
ML
48% 16-17
74% 23-8
82% 27-6
73% 19-7
ATS
67% 22-11
73% 22-8-1
82% 28-6
73% 19-7
TTL
55% 18-15
68% 21-10
100% 34-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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