WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
7-5-1 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
8-4-2 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Arturs Silovs
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 4.14 | 0.867 | -- |
| Arturs Silovs | None-None | 3.02 | 0.900 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.14
GAA
Ldr 3.02
0.867
Save %
Ldr 0.900
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
CAPITALS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
PIT @ WSH
3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026
PIT @ WSH
0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ PIT
6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025
WSH @ PIT
3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
WSH @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+9.5% more
Washington: 13.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.8
Takeaways (L5)
+40.2% more
Pittsburgh: 5.1
vs
Washington: 3.6
Power Play % (L5)
+27.4%
Pittsburgh: 42.8%
vs
Washington: 15.4%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.0% more
Pittsburgh: 31.7
vs
Washington: 29.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
3
PIT Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.8 / 13.1
16.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
49.7 / 49.5
48.3 / 51.7
Hits
14.7 / 15.6
10.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
42.8 / 15.4
60.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.7 / 29.1
31.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 3.6
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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