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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

6-5-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

7-2-3  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Carl Lindbom
GOALTENDER

Carl Lindbom

#30 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.00 0.906 --
Carl Lindbom None-None 5.12 0.808 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.00 Ldr GAA 5.12
0.906 Ldr Save % 0.808
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
LIGHTNING --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vegas)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Golden Knights Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

VGK By 1 goal

19.7%

VGK By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
VEGAS
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Knights (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 TB @ VGK 6 - 3
Oct 26, 2025 VGK @ TB 1 - 2
Mar 23, 2025 TB @ VGK 2 - 4
Oct 17, 2024 VGK @ TB 3 - 4
Mar 19, 2024 TB @ VGK 5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +16.3% more
Vegas: 16.5 vs Tampa Bay: 14.2
Faceoff % (L5) +10.5%
Vegas: 56.4% vs Tampa Bay: 45.9%
Power Play % (L5) +5.8%
Vegas: 11.8% vs Tampa Bay: 6.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.0 6
VGK Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.5 / 14.2 17.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 56.4 / 45.9 59.3 / 40.7
Hits 20.1 / 19.7 13.0 / 11.0
Power Play % 11.8 / 6.0 0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 28.5 / 27.5 32.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 3.4 / 3.7 2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
TB
VGK
TB
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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