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SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

0-1  |  Road

82
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 8:00 PM ET
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MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

1-0  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
JAGUARS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Marquette)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

21.2%

Golden Eagles Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MARQ -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

SOU By 1-7 points

13.7%

SOU By 8-14 points

4.8%

MARQ By 1-7 points

25.3%

MARQ By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
67
SOUTHERN
75
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
60
SOUTHERN
82
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+25) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.0 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u154.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 5, 2025 SOU @ MARQ 82 - 100
Nov 28, 2023 SOU @ MARQ 56 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +54.1% more
Marquette: 10.7 vs Southern: 7.0
Assists (L5) +26.0% more
Marquette: 13.0 vs Southern: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Marquette: 42.3% vs Southern: 39.6%
Blocks (L5) +8.1% more
Southern: 3.5 vs Marquette: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 67.0 82
MARQ Score 75.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.4 / 34.1 37.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.0 / 10.3 21.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.5 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 39.6 50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 66.7 / 68.4 80.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 38.8 39.0 / 39.0
Steals 10.7 / 7.0 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 13.4 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
SOU
MARQ
SOU
ML
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
ATS
53% 17-15
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
TTL
50% 16-16
42% 14-19
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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