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NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

0-1  |  Road

68
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 9:00 PM ET
University Credit Union Center
View Odds Details →

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

1-0  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
BISON --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (North Dakota State)
BisonNDSU (-3.5) 0 AggiesUCD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

96.4%

Aggies Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

NDSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

NDSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

UCD By 1-7 points

2.7%

UCD By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
78
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
60
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
68
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
72
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bison (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 5, 2025 NDSU @ UCD 68 - 80
Nov 14, 2023 NDSU @ UCD 53 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
North Dakota State: 74.4% vs UC Davis: 72.7%
Blocks (L5) +126.3% more
UC Davis: 3.5 vs North Dakota State: 1.6
Steals (L5) +45.3% more
UC Davis: 9.2 vs North Dakota State: 6.4
Turnovers (L5) +29.4% more
UC Davis: 12.5 vs North Dakota State: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 78.0 68
UCD Score 60.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 31.3 50.0 / 11.0
Assists 14.2 / 15.2 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.6 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 44.2 57.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 74.4 71.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 35.5 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.4 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 9.7 18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
UCD
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
UCD
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
NDSU
UCD
NDSU
ML
58% 19-14
49% 17-18
64% 21-12
59% 20-14
ATS
61% 20-13
54% 19-16
64% 21-12
59% 20-14
TTL
61% 20-13
43% 15-20
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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