SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
0-1 | Road
67
FRESNO STATE
BULLDOGSFRES
1-0 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
SPARTANS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Fresno State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FRES -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)
UPST By 1-7 points
15.3%
UPST By 8-14 points
5.8%
FRES By 1-7 points
26.2%
FRES By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
South Carolina Upstate
67
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Fresno State
74
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
South Carolina Upstate
61
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Fresno State
72
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 5, 2025
UPST @ FRES
67 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+36.4% more
Fresno State: 12.6
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 9.2
Rebounding (L5)
+22.1% more
Fresno State: 38.1
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 31.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Fresno State: 46.6%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 43.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Fresno State: 29.9%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 28.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UPST Score
67.0
67
FRES Score
74.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 28.2
23.0 / 35.0
Assists
12.6 / 9.2
8.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.0
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 43.1
35.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 65.7
68.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 31.2
35.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.6
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 14.5
12.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
FRES
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
FRES
Advantage
21-10-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
UPST
FRES
UPST
ML
59%
19-13
61%
19-12
74%
23-8
83%
25-5
ATS
75%
24-8
61%
19-12
74%
23-8
83%
25-5
TTL
56%
18-14
52%
16-15
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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