EAST TEXAS A&M
LIONSETAM
1-0 | Road
54
NEW MEXICO
LOBOSUNM
0-0 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
LOBOS
0%
LIONS
--
LOBOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Mexico)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)
ETAM By 1-7 points
24.3%
ETAM By 8-14 points
13.7%
UNM By 1-7 points
26.2%
UNM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
East Texas A&M
67
EAST TEXAS A&M
New Mexico
68
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
East Texas A&M
67
EAST TEXAS A&M
New Mexico
82
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lobos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lobos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lobos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Lobos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 5, 2025
ETAM @ UNM
54 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+49.2% more
East Texas A&M: 22.4
vs
New Mexico: 11.4
Steals (L5)
+40.7% more
East Texas A&M: 11.6
vs
New Mexico: 6.9
Blocks (L5)
+38.5% more
East Texas A&M: 4.9
vs
New Mexico: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+12.7% more
East Texas A&M: 11.7
vs
New Mexico: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ETAM Score
67.0
54
UNM Score
68.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 34.9
40.0 / 15.0
Assists
11.4 / 22.4
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.9
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 48.6
43.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
65.1 / 67.0
61.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 35.1
43.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.9 / 11.6
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 11.7
15.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETAM
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
UNM
Advantage
26-11-0
(70.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETAM
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
UNM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
ETAM
UNM
ETAM
ML
57%
21-16
52%
13-12
74%
25-9
62%
15-9
ATS
57%
21-16
56%
14-11
74%
25-9
62%
15-9
TTL
41%
15-22
68%
17-8
100%
34-0
100%
24-0
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