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ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-5  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 9:30 AM ET
Olympic Stadium Berlin
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

7-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
DeMarcco Hellams
KEY GAME

DeMarcco Hellams

#23 | Safety
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
DeMarcco Hellams None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
COLTS
0%
FALCONS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indianapolis)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

47.2%

Colts Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

ATL By 1-6 points

16.1%

ATL By 7-13 points

14.6%

IND By 1-6 points

16.7%

IND By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
17
ATLANTA
18
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
23
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 ATL @ IND 25 - 31
Dec 24, 2023 IND @ ATL 10 - 29
Sep 22, 2019 ATL @ IND 24 - 27
Nov 22, 2015 IND @ ATL 24 - 21
Nov 6, 2011 ATL @ IND 31 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +162.0% more
Indianapolis: 2.3 vs Atlanta: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +36.7% more
Indianapolis: 23.8 vs Atlanta: 17.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Indianapolis: 270.4 vs Atlanta: 214.0
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Indianapolis: 381.6 vs Atlanta: 305.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 17.0 25
IND Score 18.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 17.4 25.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 270.4 / 214.0 196.0 / 150.0
Rushing Yards 111.3 / 91.9 323.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.17 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 381.6 / 305.9 519.0 / 290.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 5.3 7.0 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
ATL
IND
ATL
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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