Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Dolphins BUF @ MIA

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

6-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

2-7  |  Home

30
Key Game
Bradley Chubb
KEY GAME

Bradley Chubb

#9 | Linebacker
@
Ethan Bonner
KEY GAME

Ethan Bonner

#27 | Cornerback
Player
Bradley Chubb None-None
Ethan Bonner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
DOLPHINS
100%
BILLS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

76.2%

Dolphins Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

15.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.7%

MIA By 1-6 points

10.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27
BUFFALO
17
MIAMI
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (+8) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 BUF @ MIA 13 - 30
Sep 18, 2025 MIA @ BUF 21 - 31
Nov 3, 2024 MIA @ BUF 27 - 30
Sep 12, 2024 BUF @ MIA 31 - 10
Jan 7, 2024 BUF @ MIA 21 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.2% more
Buffalo: 165.4 vs Miami: 103.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Buffalo: 0.5 vs Miami: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +18.9% more
Buffalo: 379.4 vs Miami: 307.6
First Downs (L5) +18.9% more
Buffalo: 22.2 vs Miami: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 27.0 13
MIA Score 17.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 22.2 19.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 203.7 / 214.1 173.0 / 289.0
Rushing Yards 103.9 / 165.4 197.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 307.6 / 379.4 370.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.7 2.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 6.2 7.0 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BUF
MIA
BUF
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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