Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Buccaneers NE @ TB

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

7-2  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

6-2  |  Home

23
Key Game
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Bryce Baringer None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
PATRIOTS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

78.4%

Buccaneers Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NE -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

14.7%

NE By 7-13 points

19.7%

TB By 1-6 points

10.0%

TB By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
34
NEW ENGLAND
23
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
17
NEW ENGLAND
23
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 NE @ TB 28 - 23
Oct 3, 2021 TB @ NE 19 - 17
Oct 5, 2017 NE @ TB 19 - 14
Sep 22, 2013 TB @ NE 3 - 23
Oct 25, 2009 NE @ TB 35 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.9% more
New England: 127.7 vs Tampa Bay: 84.5
Turnovers (L5) +30.7% more
New England: 1.4 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +21.1% more
New England: 21.8 vs Tampa Bay: 17.2
Total Yards (L5) +18.9% more
New England: 359.5 vs Tampa Bay: 291.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 34.0 28
TB Score 23.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 21.8 24.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 207.1 / 231.8 258.0 / 269.0
Rushing Yards 84.5 / 127.7 113.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 291.5 / 359.5 371.0 / 435.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.7 5.6 / 7.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NE
TB
NE
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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