Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Texans JAX @ HOU

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

5-3  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

3-5  |  Home

36
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Mario Edwards Jr.
KEY GAME

Mario Edwards Jr.

#97 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Mario Edwards Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
JAGUARS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Houston)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

30.9%

Texans Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

JAX By 1-6 points

12.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

9.6%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
27
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o38.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u38.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 JAX @ HOU 29 - 36
Sep 21, 2025 HOU @ JAX 10 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 HOU @ JAX 23 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 JAX @ HOU 20 - 24
Nov 26, 2023 JAX @ HOU 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Jacksonville: 21.6 vs Houston: 18.7
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
Jacksonville: 0.7 vs Houston: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 20.0 29
HOU Score 27.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 21.6 27.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 227.2 / 222.9 282.0 / 119.0
Rushing Yards 107.8 / 116.5 130.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 335.0 / 339.4 412.0 / 213.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 4.9 6.0 / 3.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
JAX
HOU
JAX
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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