Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Panthers NO @ CAR

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-8  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

5-4  |  Home

7
Key Game
Jonah Williams
KEY GAME

Jonah Williams

#-- | Defensive End
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
Jonah Williams None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
SAINTS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New Orleans)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

76.2%

Panthers Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-6 points

15.3%

NO By 7-13 points

19.7%

CAR By 1-6 points

10.7%

CAR By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
10
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
23
NEW ORLEANS
27
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Saints (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u38.5 Win
Proj Total: 30.0
D
Sim u38.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 CAR @ NO 17 - 20
Nov 9, 2025 NO @ CAR 17 - 7
Nov 3, 2024 NO @ CAR 22 - 23
Sep 8, 2024 CAR @ NO 10 - 47
Dec 10, 2023 CAR @ NO 6 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
New Orleans: 2.4 vs Carolina: 1.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.4% more
New Orleans: 197.4 vs Carolina: 145.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +128.0% more
Carolina: 149.8 vs New Orleans: 65.7
First Downs (L5) +33.2% more
Carolina: 20.0 vs New Orleans: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 20.0 17
CAR Score 10.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 15.0 13.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 145.2 / 197.4 102.0 / 266.0
Rushing Yards 149.8 / 65.7 73.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 295.0 / 263.1 175.0 / 388.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.4 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.0 3.5 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
NO
CAR
NO
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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