Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Commanders DET @ WSH

DETROIT

LIONSDET

5-3  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 4:25 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-6  |  Home

22
Key Game
Aidan Hutchinson
KEY GAME

Aidan Hutchinson

#97 | Defensive End
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Aidan Hutchinson None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
COMMANDERS
100%
LIONS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

41.5%

Commanders Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSH +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DET By 1-6 points

17.0%

DET By 7-13 points

17.5%

WSH By 1-6 points

15.3%

WSH By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
DETROIT
17
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
DETROIT
27
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 DET @ WSH 44 - 22
Jan 18, 2025 WSH @ DET 45 - 31
Sep 18, 2022 WSH @ DET 27 - 36
Nov 15, 2020 WSH @ DET 27 - 30
Nov 24, 2019 DET @ WSH 16 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.0% more
Detroit: 226.8 vs Washington: 179.2
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Detroit: 340.6 vs Washington: 307.6
Turnovers (L5) +80.0% more
Washington: 1.9 vs Detroit: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.8% more
Washington: 128.4 vs Detroit: 113.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 20.0 44
WSH Score 17.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 17.9 14.0 / 30.0
Net Passing Yards 179.2 / 226.8 195.0 / 320.0
Rushing Yards 128.4 / 113.8 93.0 / 226.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 307.6 / 340.6 288.0 / 546.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.6 5.6 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DET
WSH
DET
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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