Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Chargers PIT @ LAC

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

5-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 8:20 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

6-3  |  Home

25
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
100%
📊
CHARGERS
0%
STEELERS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Los Angeles)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

41.5%

Chargers Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

PIT By 1-6 points

15.3%

PIT By 7-13 points

12.9%

LAC By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
PITTSBURGH
20
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
24
PITTSBURGH
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 PIT @ LAC 10 - 25
Sep 22, 2024 LAC @ PIT 10 - 20
Nov 21, 2021 PIT @ LAC 37 - 41
Oct 13, 2019 PIT @ LAC 24 - 17
Dec 2, 2018 LAC @ PIT 33 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +64.7% more
Los Angeles: 136.7 vs Pittsburgh: 83.0
Total Yards (L5) +33.4% more
Los Angeles: 381.4 vs Pittsburgh: 285.8
First Downs (L5) +33.2% more
Los Angeles: 23.0 vs Pittsburgh: 17.3
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.3 vs Pittsburgh: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 17.0 10
LAC Score 20.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 17.3 18.0 / 11.0
Net Passing Yards 244.7 / 202.8 199.0 / 148.0
Rushing Yards 136.7 / 83.0 115.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 381.4 / 285.8 314.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.0 4.6 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
PIT
LAC
PIT
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
Eagles Receiver Dontayvion Wicks Added to Injury Report with Ham…
sportingnews 1 hour, 26 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 7 hours, 16 minutes ago
Rams' Special Teams Crisis: A 2026 Season Breakdown and How to F…
si 7 hours, 17 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 7 hours, 19 minutes ago