Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Broncos LV @ DEN

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-6  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 8:15 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

7-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Dylan Laube
KEY GAME

Dylan Laube

#23 | Running Back
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Dylan Laube None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
RAIDERS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Denver)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

9.9%

Broncos Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

LV By 1-6 points

5.3%

LV By 7-13 points

2.8%

DEN By 1-6 points

10.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
9
LAS VEGAS
27
DENVER
Simulated Score
21
LAS VEGAS
24
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 36.0
D
Sim u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 DEN @ LV 24 - 17
Nov 6, 2025 LV @ DEN 7 - 10
Nov 24, 2024 DEN @ LV 29 - 19
Oct 6, 2024 LV @ DEN 18 - 34
Jan 7, 2024 DEN @ LV 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +81.2% more
Denver: 129.1 vs Las Vegas: 71.2
Total Yards (L5) +32.0% more
Denver: 342.3 vs Las Vegas: 259.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.7% more
Denver: 5.5 vs Las Vegas: 4.7
First Downs (L5) +13.8% more
Denver: 19.7 vs Las Vegas: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 9.0 7
DEN Score 27.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 17.3 10.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 213.2 / 188.1 136.0 / 114.0
Rushing Yards 129.1 / 71.2 84.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 342.3 / 259.3 220.0 / 188.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.7 3.9 / 3.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
LV
DEN
LV
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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