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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

8-0  |  Road

119
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

4-3  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
THUNDER --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Portland)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

38.2%

Trail Blazers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

OKC By 1-7 points

21.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

10.7%

POR By 1-7 points

27.2%

POR By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
122
OKLAHOMA CITY
125
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
124
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.0 Win
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.3% more
Oklahoma City: 3.5 vs Portland: 1.6
Assists (L5) +40.5% more
Oklahoma City: 18.7 vs Portland: 11.1
Rebounding (L5) +31.4% more
Oklahoma City: 26.8 vs Portland: 18.4
Steals (L5) +23.8% more
Oklahoma City: 7.6 vs Portland: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 122.0 119
POR Score 125.0 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 37.1 44.0 / 39.0
Assists 11.1 / 18.7 24.0 / 24.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.5 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 49.6 41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 35.1 / 54.1 94.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 18.4 / 26.8 49.0 / 50.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.6 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 7.9 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
OKC
POR
OKC
ML
53% 56-49
70% 80-34
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
ATS
62% 65-39-1
73% 83-30-1
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
TTL
56% 58-46-1
67% 76-38
100% 89-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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