Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Mavericks NO @ DAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

1-6  |  Road

101
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

2-5  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
PELICANS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

27.4%

Mavericks Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

NO By 1-7 points

26.8%

NO By 8-14 points

24.3%

DAL By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
118
NEW ORLEANS
112
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
NEW ORLEANS
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.0 Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
New Orleans: 39.6% vs Dallas: 34.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
New Orleans: 46.1% vs Dallas: 42.0%
Blocks (L5) +61.2% more
Dallas: 3.4 vs New Orleans: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +3.7%
Dallas: 50.7% vs New Orleans: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 118.0 101
DAL Score 112.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 39.6 31.0 / 32.0
Assists 18.4 / 17.8 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.1 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 46.1 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 50.7 / 46.9 75.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 27.4 44.0 / 56.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.5 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 10.1 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NO
DAL
NO
ML
62% 63-39
62% 98-61
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
ATS
67% 68-34
68% 107-51-1
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
75% 119-40
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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