HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
4-2 | Road
124
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
3-5 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
ROCKETS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
23.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
10.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
123
HOUSTON
Memphis
113
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Houston
110
HOUSTON
Memphis
114
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
MEM @ HOU
101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026
HOU @ MEM
119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026
MEM @ HOU
99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025
HOU @ MEM
124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025
HOU @ MEM
119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.3% more
Houston: 5.7
vs
Memphis: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+28.9% more
Houston: 6.5
vs
Memphis: 4.6
Rebounding (L5)
+25.8% more
Houston: 39.1
vs
Memphis: 29.0
Turnovers (L5)
+16.7% more
Houston: 13.4
vs
Memphis: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
123.0
124
MEM Score
113.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 38.5
33.0 / 43.0
Assists
15.9 / 18.6
25.0 / 29.0
Blocks
2.2 / 5.7
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 47.2
38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
55.4 / 54.3
80.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
29.0 / 39.1
47.0 / 54.0
Steals
4.6 / 6.5
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 13.4
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
HOU
MEM
HOU
ML
57%
59-44
61%
69-44
50%
41-41
59%
51-35
ATS
63%
65-38
62%
70-43
50%
41-41
59%
51-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
51%
58-55
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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