Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Nuggets MIA @ DEN

MIAMI

HEATMIA

4-3  |  Road

112
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

4-2  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
HEAT --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

24.2%

Nuggets Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

MIA By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

25.3%

DEN By 1-7 points

15.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
126
MIAMI
119
DENVER
Simulated Score
105
MIAMI
112
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o242.5 Loss
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim u242.5 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 DEN @ MIA 123 - 147
Nov 5, 2025 MIA @ DEN 112 - 122
Jan 17, 2025 DEN @ MIA 133 - 113
Nov 8, 2024 MIA @ DEN 122 - 135
Mar 13, 2024 DEN @ MIA 100 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +58.0% more
Miami: 11.2 vs Denver: 4.7
Steals (L5) +41.6% more
Miami: 6.9 vs Denver: 4.0
Rebounding (L5) +33.6% more
Miami: 28.6 vs Denver: 19.0
Assists (L5) +30.9% more
Miami: 21.0 vs Denver: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 126.0 112
DEN Score 119.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 37.4 28.0 / 34.0
Assists 14.5 / 21.0 33.0 / 26.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.5 / 50.6 43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 36.0 / 50.5 89.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 19.0 / 28.6 61.0 / 38.0
Steals 4.0 / 6.9 10.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 4.7 / 11.2 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIA
DEN
MIA
ML
54% 57-48
48% 46-50
55% 47-39
59% 48-34
ATS
63% 65-38-2
51% 49-47
55% 47-39
59% 48-34
TTL
54% 56-48-1
59% 57-39
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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