SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
5-1 | Road
116
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
6-2 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
LAKERS
100%
SPURS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
26.8%
SA By 8-14 points
18.6%
LAL By 1-7 points
23.0%
LAL By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
113
SAN ANTONIO
Los Angeles
111
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
San Antonio
109
SAN ANTONIO
Los Angeles
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
SA @ LAL
136 - 108
Jan 7, 2026
LAL @ SA
91 - 107
Dec 10, 2025
SA @ LAL
132 - 119
Nov 5, 2025
SA @ LAL
116 - 118
Mar 17, 2025
SA @ LAL
109 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+17.9% more
San Antonio: 3.0
vs
Los Angeles: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+57.3% more
Los Angeles: 19.1
vs
San Antonio: 12.1
Steals (L5)
+35.6% more
Los Angeles: 7.4
vs
San Antonio: 5.4
Turnovers (L5)
+22.3% more
Los Angeles: 9.8
vs
San Antonio: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
113.0
116
LAL Score
111.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 33.7
32.0 / 39.0
Assists
19.1 / 12.1
23.0 / 22.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.0
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
54.9 / 52.0
45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
54.4 / 39.7
77.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
24.0 / 23.8
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.4
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 8.0
14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
LAL
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
SA
LAL
SA
ML
61%
68-43
60%
111-73
54%
49-42
58%
61-44
ATS
61%
67-43-1
58%
107-76-1
54%
49-42
58%
61-44
TTL
61%
66-43-2
74%
134-47-3
100%
91-0
100%
105-0
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