Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Boilermakers EVAN @ PUR

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

0-0  |  Road

51
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 6:30 PM ET
Mackey Arena
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

0-0  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
PURPLE ACES --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Purdue)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

46.0%

Boilermakers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

EVAN By 1-7 points

24.3%

EVAN By 8-14 points

13.7%

PUR By 1-7 points

26.2%

PUR By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
63
EVANSVILLE
64
PURDUE
Simulated Score
59
EVANSVILLE
88
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+33.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 EVAN @ PUR 51 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +74.8% more
Purdue: 15.8 vs Evansville: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +14.0% more
Purdue: 35.1 vs Evansville: 30.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Purdue: 35.2% vs Evansville: 26.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Purdue: 78.1% vs Evansville: 74.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 63.0 51
PUR Score 64.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 26.0 45.0 / 21.0
Assists 15.8 / 9.1 22.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.3 / 5.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 42.4 47.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 74.1 81.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 30.8 40.0 / 40.0
Steals 4.5 / 5.4 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 13.1 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
EVAN
PUR
EVAN
ML
67% 26-13
56% 18-14
66% 25-13
62% 20-12
ATS
64% 25-14
66% 21-11
66% 25-13
62% 20-12
TTL
51% 20-19
62% 20-12
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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