Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Colonels @ Wildcats NICH @ UK

NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

0-0  |  Road

51
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Rupp Arena
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

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77
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
COLONELS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kentucky)
ColonelsNICH (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

24.2%

Wildcats Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

NICH By 1-7 points

15.3%

NICH By 8-14 points

5.8%

UK By 1-7 points

26.2%

UK By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NICHOLLS
74
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
59
NICHOLLS
88
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+32.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 NICH @ UK 51 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.3% more
Kentucky: 15.1 vs Nicholls: 11.0
Blocks (L5) +17.0% more
Kentucky: 3.3 vs Nicholls: 2.8
Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Kentucky: 47.3% vs Nicholls: 38.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Kentucky: 37.5% vs Nicholls: 34.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 67.0 51
UK Score 74.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 34.6 26.0 / 17.0
Assists 15.1 / 11.0 21.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.8 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 38.8 47.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 66.8 55.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 38.4 51.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.4 / 9.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 13.0 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
UK Advantage
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
UK Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
NICH
UK
NICH
ML
71% 25-10
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
68% 19-9
ATS
83% 29-6
47% 15-17
72% 23-9
68% 19-9
TTL
63% 22-13
56% 18-14
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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