Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Mountaineers MSM @ WVU

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

0-0  |  Road

54
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 7:00 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

0-0  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (West Virginia)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

38.2%

Mountaineers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WVU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

MSM By 1-7 points

21.6%

MSM By 8-14 points

10.7%

WVU By 1-7 points

27.2%

WVU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
65
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
61
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
78
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 MSM @ WVU 54 - 70
Nov 7, 2022 MSM @ WVU 58 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +76.2% more
West Virginia: 7.0 vs Mount St. Mary's: 4.0
Blocks (L5) +43.5% more
West Virginia: 3.0 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Mount St. Mary's: 74.8% vs West Virginia: 65.8%
Rebounding (L5) +8.2% more
Mount St. Mary's: 36.8 vs West Virginia: 33.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 62.0 54
WVU Score 65.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 32.6 28.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.6 / 13.5 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.1 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 41.4 44.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 65.8 / 74.8 66.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 36.8 29.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.0 13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.1 9.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
WVU
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
MSM
WVU
MSM
ML
63% 22-13
53% 17-15
76% 26-8
61% 19-12
ATS
60% 21-14
62% 20-12
76% 26-8
61% 19-12
TTL
40% 14-21
81% 26-6
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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