Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Shockers UNCA @ WICH

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

0-0  |  Road

58
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Charles Koch Arena
View Odds Details →

WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

0-0  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
SHOCKERS
100%
BULLDOGS --
SHOCKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
WICHITA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsUNCA (-3.5) 0 ShockersWICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

34.5%

Shockers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WICH +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WICH)

UNCA By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNCA By 8-14 points

21.6%

WICH By 1-7 points

20.1%

WICH By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
UNC ASHEVILLE
75
WICHITA STATE
Simulated Score
72
UNC ASHEVILLE
75
WICHITA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Shockers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Shockers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Shockers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 UNCA @ WICH 58 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.7% more
UNC Asheville: 7.2 vs Wichita State: 6.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
UNC Asheville: 45.5% vs Wichita State: 41.6%
Rebounding (L5) +20.3% more
Wichita State: 38.6 vs UNC Asheville: 32.1
Blocks (L5) +14.6% more
Wichita State: 5.4 vs UNC Asheville: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score 79.0 58
WICH Score 75.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 31.6 25.0 / 27.0
Assists 11.4 / 11.7 10.0 / 3.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.7 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.6 / 45.5 46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 69.8 60.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 32.1 46.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.2 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 11.5 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
WICH Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WICH
UNCA
WICH
UNCA
ML
61% 22-14
53% 16-14
68% 23-11
63% 19-11
ATS
64% 23-13
57% 17-13
68% 23-11
63% 19-11
TTL
69% 25-11
60% 18-12
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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