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UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

0-0  |  Road

64
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

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93
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
SPARTANS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Kansas State)
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

38.2%

Wildcats Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

UNCG By 1-7 points

21.6%

UNCG By 8-14 points

10.7%

KSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

KSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UNC GREENSBORO
69
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
62
UNC GREENSBORO
78
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 UNCG @ KSU 64 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.4% more
Kansas State: 11.1 vs UNC Greensboro: 8.6
Steals (L5) +19.5% more
Kansas State: 5.7 vs UNC Greensboro: 4.8
Assists (L5) +10.4% more
Kansas State: 12.1 vs UNC Greensboro: 11.0
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
Kansas State: 76.3% vs UNC Greensboro: 74.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 66.0 64
KSU Score 69.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.1 / 30.0 52.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.1 / 11.0 22.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.9 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 42.7 51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 74.2 55.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 35.4 42.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.8 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 8.6 16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
UNCG
KSU
UNCG
ML
59% 19-13
38% 13-21
69% 22-10
71% 24-10
ATS
62% 20-12
44% 15-19
69% 22-10
71% 24-10
TTL
47% 15-17
76% 26-8
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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