Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Longhorns @ Blue Devils TEX @ DUKE

TEXAS

LONGHORNSTEX

0-0  |  Road

60
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 8:45 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

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75
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
100%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
0%
LONGHORNS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Duke)
LonghornsTEX (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Longhorns Cover

42.1%

Blue Devils Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

TEX By 1-7 points

23.0%

TEX By 8-14 points

12.2%

DUKE By 1-7 points

26.8%

DUKE By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
78
TEXAS
80
DUKE
Simulated Score
75
TEXAS
78
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 TEX @ DUKE 60 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +52.4% more
Duke: 16.8 vs Texas: 11.0
Blocks (L5) +24.4% more
Duke: 4.5 vs Texas: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Duke: 44.8% vs Texas: 37.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Duke: 81.3% vs Texas: 76.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 78.0 60
DUKE Score 80.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.8 / 37.3 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.8 / 11.0 15.0 / 6.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.6 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 45.9 42.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 76.8 73.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 34.0 37.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.7 / 5.4 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 9.9 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
DUKE
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.6
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
TEX
DUKE
TEX
ML
71% 27-11
58% 21-15
73% 24-9
56% 19-15
ATS
79% 30-8
56% 20-16
73% 24-9
56% 19-15
TTL
47% 18-20
64% 23-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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