Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Sun Devils SUU @ ASU

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

0-0  |  Road

64
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

0-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
📊
SUN DEVILS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona State)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

42.1%

Sun Devils Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ASU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

SUU By 1-7 points

23.0%

SUU By 8-14 points

12.2%

ASU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ASU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
84
SOUTHERN UTAH
86
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
63
SOUTHERN UTAH
78
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 SUU @ ASU 64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Arizona State: 30.8% vs Southern Utah: 24.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.2%
Arizona State: 74.7% vs Southern Utah: 69.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Arizona State: 42.6% vs Southern Utah: 37.8%
Blocks (L5) +39.7% more
Southern Utah: 5.1 vs Arizona State: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 84.0 64
ASU Score 86.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 24.4 39.0 / 16.0
Assists 11.0 / 10.3 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.1 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 37.8 49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 69.5 70.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 31.0 / 35.5 39.0 / 40.0
Steals 3.0 / 4.3 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 14.9 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
ASU Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
SUU
ASU
SUU
ML
52% 17-16
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
ATS
52% 17-16
71% 22-9
68% 21-10
69% 22-10
TTL
64% 21-12
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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