Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Skyhawks @ Rebels UTM @ UNLV

UT MARTIN

SKYHAWKSUTM

0-0  |  Road

86
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 10:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

0-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
SKYHAWKS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UNLV)
SkyhawksUTM (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

46.0%

Rebels Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNLV -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UTM By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTM By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNLV By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNLV By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
68
UT MARTIN
69
UNLV
Simulated Score
65
UT MARTIN
78
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 UTM @ UNLV 86 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
UNLV: 3.5 vs UT Martin: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
UNLV: 70.7% vs UT Martin: 68.9%
Assists (L5) +25.2% more
UT Martin: 15.4 vs UNLV: 11.5
Steals (L5) +15.4% more
UT Martin: 7.3 vs UNLV: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 68.0 86
UNLV Score 69.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 32.7 30.0 / 37.0
Assists 11.5 / 15.4 16.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 38.2 / 43.2 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 68.9 76.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 35.7 39.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.3 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.8 22.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -8.2
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
UTM
UNLV
UTM
ML
50% 17-17
69% 22-10
59% 20-14
69% 20-9
ATS
65% 22-12
56% 18-14
59% 20-14
69% 20-9
TTL
62% 21-13
44% 14-18
100% 34-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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