EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
6-5-3 | Road
3
DALLAS
STARSDAL
6-3-3 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Adam Erne
#21 | LW@
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Erne | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 2.77 | 0.885 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.77
--
Save %
0.885
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
STARS
0%
OILERS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
EDM By 1 goal
12.1%
EDM By 2-3 goals
9.3%
DAL By 1 goal
19.7%
DAL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Dallas
4
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Edmonton
2
EDMONTON
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
EDM @ DAL
2 - 7
Nov 25, 2025
DAL @ EDM
8 - 3
Nov 4, 2025
EDM @ DAL
3 - 4
May 29, 2025
EDM @ DAL
6 - 3
May 27, 2025
DAL @ EDM
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+43.9% more
Dallas: 25.1
vs
Edmonton: 17.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.4% more
Dallas: 17.8
vs
Edmonton: 13.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.6%
Dallas: 57.9%
vs
Edmonton: 54.3%
Power Play % (L5)
+26.7%
Edmonton: 61.4%
vs
Dallas: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
3.0
3
DAL Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.8 / 13.3
8.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
57.9 / 54.3
45.6 / 54.4
Hits
25.1 / 17.5
18.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
34.7 / 61.4
25.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
23.4 / 28.8
27.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 5.1
2.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
EDM
DAL
EDM
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
TTL
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
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