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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

6-4-2  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 9:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

7-1-5  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Scott Wedgewood
GOALTENDER

Scott Wedgewood

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.16 0.909 --
Scott Wedgewood None-None 2.00 0.917 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.16 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.909 Save % Ldr 0.917
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
AVALANCHE
0%
LIGHTNING --
AVALANCHE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Avalanche Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

COL By 1 goal

19.7%

COL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Avalanche Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Avalanche Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Avalanche (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Avalanche (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 6, 2026 COL @ TB 2 - 4
Nov 4, 2025 TB @ COL 2 - 3
Nov 25, 2024 COL @ TB 2 - 8
Oct 30, 2024 TB @ COL 5 - 2
Feb 15, 2024 COL @ TB 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +21.3% more
Colorado: 4.3 vs Tampa Bay: 3.6
Shots on Goal (L5) +17.6% more
Colorado: 34.3 vs Tampa Bay: 29.2
Blocked Shots (L5) +9.7% more
Colorado: 15.6 vs Tampa Bay: 14.2
Faceoff % (L5) +4.8%
Colorado: 49.1% vs Tampa Bay: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.0 2
COL Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.6 / 14.2 15.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 49.1 / 44.3 50.8 / 49.2
Hits 16.4 / 18.1 17.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 10.8 / 9.0 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 34.3 / 29.2 33.0 / 24.0
Takeaways 4.3 / 3.6 7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
43%MONEY57%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TB
COL
TB
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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