Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Pelicans CHA @ NO

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

3-4  |  Road

112
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

0-6  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
HORNETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Charlotte)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

69.1%

Pelicans Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)

CHA By 1-7 points

27.2%

CHA By 8-14 points

23.0%

NO By 1-7 points

18.6%

NO By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
121
CHARLOTTE
116
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
107
CHARLOTTE
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o229.5 Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 NO @ CHA 95 - 102
Nov 4, 2025 CHA @ NO 112 - 116
Mar 30, 2025 CHA @ NO 94 - 98
Jan 25, 2025 NO @ CHA 92 - 123
Jan 17, 2024 CHA @ NO 112 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.1% more
Charlotte: 3.2 vs New Orleans: 1.6
Rebounding (L5) +27.6% more
Charlotte: 29.8 vs New Orleans: 21.6
Assists (L5) +26.4% more
Charlotte: 18.0 vs New Orleans: 13.2
Free Throw % (L5) +23.0%
Charlotte: 59.4% vs New Orleans: 36.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 121.0 112
NO Score 116.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 40.8 45.0 / 34.0
Assists 13.2 / 18.0 27.0 / 20.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.2 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 48.5 48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 36.4 / 59.4 68.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 21.6 / 29.8 39.0 / 49.0
Steals 3.8 / 3.5 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 9.7 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
CHA
NO
CHA
ML
62% 98-61
61% 60-39
58% 48-35
48% 40-44
ATS
68% 107-51-1
60% 59-40
58% 48-35
48% 40-44
TTL
75% 119-40
58% 57-42
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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