Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Hoyas MORG @ GTWN

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

0-0  |  Road

70
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 6:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

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87
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
HOYAS
0%
BEARS --
HOYAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
GEORGETOWN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Georgetown)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 HoyasGTWN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

8.1%

Hoyas Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GTWN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GTWN)

MORG By 1-7 points

5.8%

MORG By 8-14 points

1.4%

GTWN By 1-7 points

16.9%

GTWN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
78
MORGAN STATE
92
GEORGETOWN
Simulated Score
62
MORGAN STATE
75
GEORGETOWN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hoyas Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hoyas Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hoyas (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Hoyas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 MORG @ GTWN 70 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +8.6% more
Georgetown: 11.4 vs Morgan State: 10.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Georgetown: 35.8% vs Morgan State: 30.7%
Blocks (L5) +73.2% more
Morgan State: 6.7 vs Georgetown: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +31.4% more
Morgan State: 13.7 vs Georgetown: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 78.0 70
GTWN Score 92.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 30.7 15.0 / 39.0
Assists 11.4 / 10.5 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.8 / 6.7 11.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 42.9 43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 78.5 69.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 37.0 40.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.7 / 6.4 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 13.7 7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
GTWN Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GTWN
MORG
GTWN
MORG
ML
67% 22-11
50% 14-14
73% 22-8
58% 14-10
ATS
58% 19-14
50% 14-14
73% 22-8
58% 14-10
TTL
58% 19-14
50% 14-14
100% 30-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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